Friday, 29 November 2019

GDP data with or without inflation

Should we welcome inflation to increase GDP?
It's time we start extracting Real GDP which is net of inflation for comparision to get actual picture
Otherwise Without Real GDP we have to also consider  inflation figures and then project the analysis 
Currently we are talking about half baked data when we talk abt GDP growth without considering inflation 
We should talk about real GDP
Factors              2014      2019

Inflation.            10.3%     4.5%
FDI(bn.$)            189.5     283.9
Forex(bn.$)        304.2     412.9
GVA(Service)     7.4%       8.4%
GVA(Mfg)           5.3%       8.4%
Debt to GDP       23.9%    19.7%
Inflation growth was more than 10% and GDP growth 7-8% during 2008-2014
Considering that we have negative growth of 2-3%
Now inflation is 4%  and GDP 4.5%
Still positive growth of 0.5%
It's because of Automobile and real estate
It's a bubble which is burst
Strong Investment is required in infrastructure to increase the GDP
Also by increasing inflation  the growth rate can be increased 
Thankfully Govt is not taking the bait
And also automobile needed some correction  due to pollution problems
Its cyclic
Sudden boom in some sectors which overgrows demand due to which comes the slump

No comments:

Post a Comment